Archive for 3.3 Peak Oil

China, Peak Oil and Climate Change

Presentation at Utah Valley University

3.3 Peak Oil

Development Journey and Outlook of Chinese Giant Oilfields

Over 70% of China’s domestic oil production is obtained from 9 giant oilfields. Understanding the behaviour of these fields is essential to both domestic oil production and future Chinese oil imports. This study utilizes decline curves and depletion rate analysis to create some future production outlooks for the Chinese giant oilfields. We can conclude that China’s future domestic oil production faces a significant challenge caused by maturing and declining giant fields. Evidence also indicates that the extensive use of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery methods may be masking increasing scarcity and may result in even steeper future decline rates than the ones currently being seen. The Chinese petroleum industry has managed to keep many of their giants on a production plateau for many decades. However, nothing can change the eventual onset of decline in oilfields and many of the Chinese giants have already passed their peak production levels. Our results suggest that a considerable drop in oil production from the Chinese giant oilfields can be expected over the next decades.

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Forecast of Oil Reserves and Production in Daqing Oilfield of China

As China’s largest oilfield, Daqing is of great importance to China , this paper analyses the status of the Daqing oilfield and forecasts its ultimate recoverable reserves by use of the URR model. The forecast results are presented for three scenarios which show that the ultimate recoverable reserves in Daqing oilfield are 3574.0 million tons in the optimistic scenario, 3169.3 million in the base case scenario and 3033.3 million in the pessimistic scenario, respectively. A system dynamics model is established and the quantitative relationships between variables in the model are determined. Total oil production, remaining recoverable reserves, annual newly discovered reserves, and the degree of reserves recovery before 2060 are simulated under the three scenarios by use of the system dynamics model. The forecast results show that the future oil production in Daqing oilfield will continue declining, under the base case scenario, from 41.6 million tons in2007 to 8.0 million tons in2060. For Chinese policy makers, it is worth paying attention to the problem of whether oil production in new oilfields can effectively make up for the decline in production of the large, old oilfields.

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The Evolution and Present Status of the Study on Peak Oil in China

Peak oil theory is a theory concerning long-term oil reserves and the rate of oil production. Peak oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil or gas in any area under consideration. Its inevitability is analyzed from three aspects. The factors that influence peak oil and their mechanisms are discussed. These include the amount of resources, the discovery maturity of resources, the depletion rate of reserves and the demand for oil. The advance in the study of peak oil in China is divided into three stages. The main characteristics, main researchers, forecast results and research methods are described in each stage. The progress of the study of peak oil in China is summarized and the present problems are analyzed. Finally three development trends of peak oil study in China are presented.

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Drilling and Production, Peak Oil Models Forecast China’s Oil Supply, Demand

China’s oil production and demand is forecast using the Hubbert, Generalized Weng, and HCZ models. The Generalized Weng model best fits China’s oil production and forecasts a peak oil production of 194 tonnes/​year in 2026. The Hubbert model best fits China’s oil demand, which is expected to peak at 633 tonnes/​year in 2032. With a response from Jean Laherrere, 22 January 2008, Questions to Feng Lianyong on the OGJ 14 Jan.2008 article: “Peak oil models forecast China’s oil supply, demand” http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/files/JL_Q-OGJ14Jan08.pdf  

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China’s Oil Reserve Forecast and Analysis Based on Peak Oil Models

In order to forecast future oil production it is necessary to know the size of the reserves and use models. In this article, we use the typical Peak Oil models, the Hu–Chen–Zhang model usually called HCZ model and the Hubbert model, which have been used commonly for forecasting in China and the world, to forecast China’s oil Ultimate Recovery (URR). The former appears to give more realistic results based on an URR for China of 15.64 billion tons. The study leads to some suggestions for new policies to meet the unfolding energy situation.

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Peak Oil and its Implications for Hong Kong

The looming peak in global oil production represents a huge risk to Hong Kong and the world. Yet the concept of Peak Oil and its consequences remain poorly understood. This briefing document provides a high level overview of the issue, its implications and some initial recommendations for the HKSAR government. Hong Kong’s unique position in China and indeed in the region could be permanently damaged, should Peak Oil materialize. Although we do not intend to be alarmist, recent evidence suggests that the peaking of global production should no longer be an abstract debate. We believe that the downside risks are substantial enough to justify immediate action. Specifically, the HKSAR government should err on the side of caution by managing risk and pro-actively preparing for Peak Oil.

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