China’s Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions

Abstract In this study, entitled China s Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, the Energy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organization under China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), sought to explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable development strategy. Three scenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore the issues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping a sustainable development path compatible with China’s unique circumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematic and complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed in the Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmental sustainability would receive low priority is covered in the Ordinary Effort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measures along with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growth scenario. The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demand structure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020. The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistic targets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are in line with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also help analyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhouse gas emissions.
Author Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Report (LBNL-54067); Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan, E..; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong; 2003
1 Energy and Climate, 1.1 General Energy Concerns, 1.1.3 International and Foreign Think-tanks, Research Institutes, NGOs and Individual Researchers